Kenya is with Kamala Harris. This emerges from a thorough research we did, reading opinions of politicians, economists, geopolitical experts and opinion leaders in and around Nairobi.
MPs are siding with Kamala because it is normal to think that ‘no new, good news’, just as for columnists in the most influential newspapers, such as the Daily Nation and Standard, Harris' victory would be crucial to maintaining the “status quo”, as Joe Biden is a member of the Democratic Party, and Kamala his deputy, so Harris's victory would ensure that the Democrats remain the ruling party in the US and continue with the foreign policy that is nonetheless helping Kenya to join the ranks of developing countries on the verge of joining the elite, i.e. the G20.
According to experts, ultimately, the bilateral agreements between Kenya and the US established by Harris' predecessor and President William Ruto will remain intact.
The unknown Trump, on the other hand, is both a return to the past, with stakes that the US placed on Kenya in Kenyatta's time, and an unknown for the future, especially in terms of relations with China and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Then there is an issue that is very dear to President William Ruto, on which he has not only spent his time but has also focused on a policy of support for Africa and Kenya as a driving force: climate change and rising energy costs. According to political scientists, a Trump presidency could further destabilise environmental policies and global trade in general. Trump's confrontational approach to China, as seen during his previous administration, could intensify economic uncertainty. In contrast, while President Biden had frictions with China, his administration has de-escalated the trade war, fostering more stable global economic growth.
In short, Trump's ‘Make America Great Again’, does not convince Kenyans too much, primarily because by restricting imports from China, Kenya's economic growth could be adversely affected, and as a result debt with Beijing would come back into the picture, as well as raise prices and taxes, and threaten supply chains.
Trump is also seen as a threat by Generation Z. The Biden administration has consistently been a vocal defender of human rights, criticising the Ruto government for its violent response to street protests, police abductions and extrajudicial killings.
Finally, Kenyans living in the US also fear Trump's anti-EU policy, which promises strict controls and repatriations for thousands of foreigners.
As someone always says, ‘talk is cheap’, in the end, bilateral relations between Nairobi and Washington have always been played on very big tables, where anything goes. And it is usually always the same people who eat.