It is a time of apparent peace, but not an easy one politically, that Kenya is going through.
While at the economic level, the government of President William Ruto is trying to patch up the loopholes that the failure to pass the 2024-2025 budget bill has caused (about 3.5 billion euro budget gap, of which only 1.5 billion is covered by loans) and is grappling with an exponential public debt (equally divided between domestic and foreign), which has long exceeded 10 billion and is between 60 and 70 per cent of GDP. The protests of Generation Z, the government reshuffle, and in general a new public awareness of the mismanagement and wrongdoings of some state employees, have marked an important moment in the country's recent trajectory.
Foreign and economic policies, international aid, police abuse, relations with the opposition, infighting in parliament, justice and petitions. There is a lot of ‘nyama choma’ (barbecued meat, Kenya's national dish) on the nation's plate. Almost all of it indigestible for Ruto and his closest allies.
Let us summarise the (many) previous episodes to date.

YOUTH PROTESTS AND JUSTICE

After three months of street demonstrations, which ended before mid-August, Amnesty International and other human rights organisations reported 61 victims at the hands of the police or agents who had infiltrated the peaceful demonstrations, with over 300 injured and more than a hundred kidnappings, some involving prolonged torture and ill-treatment, others in arrests for trivial reasons and some still unsolved.
After weeks of silence, Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki admitted 42 of the 61 dead but also stated that it was not certain that they were all victims of the police, promising investigations that should have already shown some signs of activity.
But the search for truth combined with the investigative and prosecutorial processes is not one of the country's flagships, if it is true that for example the investigation into the so-called Shakahola massacre of the fasting preacher Paul Mackenzie's sect in the hinterland of Malindi, took 14 months and that the trial, officially opened last June, is proceeding with a slowness that is leaving the self-styled pastor's accomplices in the field, who are dying in prison one by one. Not to mention the case of the bodies of at least 11 women hacked to pieces in a rubbish dump in Mukuru, a suburb of Nairobi: If even in this case the law enforcement agencies were among the main suspects, a few days later a confessed serial killer was caught, who, in addition to the murder of his wife two years earlier, also accused himself of the other femicides (about forty, according to him), only to then mysteriously escape from detention after a week and disappear into thin air, just as nothing is known about the continuation of the investigation and the search for other bodies and victims, which could be many more.
In the meantime, the ‘Gen Z’ protests have returned to their favourite nest, the social networks, except for the courageous initiatives of a few activists who are repeatedly arrested, threatened or are victims of lightning kidnappings.
The latest was the young lawyer Morara Kebaso, who became famous on Tik Tok for his imitation of President Ruto. Kebaso has embarked on a tour of Kenya to see for himself the progress of government infrastructure projects that have been funded and, for one reason or another, are not proceeding. His popularity grew exponentially and created countless attempts to imitate him, until Kebaso was arrested with methods that were anything but democratic and then released on bail, on a simple defamation complaint.

FINANCIAL SITUATION AND INTERNATIONAL AID

Ruto hardly comments on domestic political issues these days. He is very busy looking for funds to make up for the non-application of taxes and excise duties that would have earned the state the money it needs to run in the current fiscal year.
After the denial by the International Monetary Fund, Ruto went to China but only obtained partnerships for infrastructure projects. Operational money could come from the United Arab Emirates, which, however, demand bank-like interest rates of 8.2%.
Meanwhile, in the short term, the confidence of those who are supposed to lend money, which is measured in direct proportion to its growth index, has waned somewhat, as it fell by one per cent (4.6 per cent against 5.6 per cent) in the second quarter of 2024, compared to the previous year, the National Statistics Office said this week. On the other hand, the inflation index in September also fell by one point (3.5%) compared to August.
Numbers, numbers. Do they really count for anything, especially in Africa?
In this context, there is the agreement that the government has reportedly made and is being finalised between the state and the Indian company Adani Group for the sale of Nairobi International Airport for the next 30 years. A move that would immediately bring in $2 billion into the state coffers and allow Adani to restructure the airport, build around it as it pleases, manage airport taxes and the fate of staff. The agreement was contested by the unions, who went on strike for two days, bringing the transport and tourism sectors to their knees, last August, and is the subject of petitions in parliament. Project financing and the sale of state property, starting with the port of Mombasa to gas and sugar companies, is one of the other lifeboats identified by the government, which risks drowning in the sea of default.
But the High Court is, for now, rejecting, one by one, the various proposals for auctions or management disposals.

VICE-PRESIDENT, PARLIAMENT AND OPPOSITION

After the street protests, the agreement reached between Ruto and the historic opposition leader Raila Odinga caused a stir. While it is true that two and a half legislatures ago they were in the same coalition, or rather Ruto was Odinga's number one dauphin, the 2022 election battle between the two candidates, with low blows, accusations of fraud and a repeat of the vote denied, comes to mind. As does the descent into the streets in the spring of 2023, with more chaos and deaths in the suburbs of Nairobi and Kisumu in particular.
After the government reshuffle to quell the demonstrations, Ruto decided to include among his ministers, four MPs from Odinga's coalition and at the same time endorsed the candidature of the grand old man (‘Baba’ is his nickname) as president of the African Union.
In this way, in addition to a broad-based government, he obtained a majority in parliament equal to more than the two-thirds needed to implement reforms, including constitutional ones.
The first test of strength, probably demanded by Odinga and his people, is the removal of Vice-President Kikuyu Rigathi Gachagua through a parliamentary impeachment trial. This would be the first time in the history of the Republic of Kenya that a very high office of state has been removed by impeachment.
Behind this move, which seems likely to succeed (initial talks have seen more than two-thirds of MPs agreeing), is the power struggle of the ‘Mount Kenya lobby’, the huge reservoir of votes, power and campaign funding, thanks to which Gachagua himself had helped to bring Ruto to the presidency. Now, with Odinga's outstretched hand, it would seem that there is no longer any need, and many other more moderate and less tribalist Kikuyu are ready to take the place of the current vice-president. Not to mention that the opposition has also been split and Odinga's closest allies, Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua (an exponent of Mount Kenya, who was defeated in the elections precisely because she supported Odinga in the elections in her region) must rebuild the coalition, while Gen Z is preparing to unveil its political cards, with activists announcing movements, parties and formations, and entrepreneurs, such as veteran Jimi Wangigi, opposed by the Ruto government, deciding who to support.

So there are many scenarios still open, with some pressing matters concerning, as always, the last to be considered during these imperfect storms: the citizens.
The shilling is holding for now, foreign policy remains a cornerstone in William Ruto's ability to run the country, but at the national level everything is creaking, with the anti-corruption commission fishing every day for a governor, an MP or a county councillor with their hands in the bag or the bag already full (and half-empty) for a while. Meanwhile, the Kenyans on the street, fatalists and resigned net-less equilibrists of the great African circus, struggle on amidst improbable health reforms, electricity disruptions and schools in disarray. Follow-up in future episodes, which, to see how it is going in other parts of the world, it is already good that there are more to come.