Kenya is not without fuel and, at least for now, does not appear to be on the verge of running out. But the fact that Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi has called urgent meetings with oil companies and international suppliers speaks volumes about how closely the government is monitoring the situation.
The reason is simple: the country's energy system is almost entirely dependent on imports. The oil that powers cars, buses, trucks, and generators comes almost entirely from the Middle East, through direct agreements with major companies such as Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, and ENOC. When the geopolitical situation in that region becomes unstable, Nairobi knows that the first thing to do is to check that the supply chain remains intact.
So now that almost everything has come to a standstill in that narrow stretch of sea between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula called the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil passes, it is necessary to return to preventive thinking, which, since there is no war, is a smart thing to do.

In recent years, the government has sought to make this system less vulnerable. One of the main tools has been the “government-to-government” procurement model, introduced in 2023 to avoid dependence on international traders and reduce pressure on the national currency. Under this system, Kenya purchases fuel directly from major Gulf producers, often with deferred payments in Kenyan shillings rather than dollars. The goal was twofold: to stabilize supplies and protect the shilling from fluctuations in the oil market.
A second element of security is the storage network. Through the Kenya Pipeline Company and the depots connected to the port of Mombasa, the country maintains strategic reserves that should cover several weeks of consumption. This margin serves precisely to manage any delays in deliveries or temporary tensions on maritime routes.

In recent years, this system has already stood the test of time. During the pandemic and the most acute phases of the war in Ukraine, when energy markets were extremely volatile, Kenya managed to avoid actual shortages, although it could not prevent significant increases in pump prices.
And this is precisely where the most sensitive point lies. Even if fuel continues to arrive, the price at which it arrives can change rapidly. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority updates prices every month, and when international oil prices rise or transport costs increase, the result is reflected almost immediately at the gas pumps.

In an economy like Kenya's, the impact spreads very quickly. Road transport remains the backbone of goods distribution: trucks connecting Mombasa to Nairobi, supplying the interior of the country and also bringing products to landlocked East African markets. When fuel prices rise, transport costs increase, and this leads to a chain reaction of rising prices for food, materials, and imported goods.
It is a dynamic that the country knows well. In recent years, every rise in gasoline prices has had an immediate effect on the cost of living, fueling protests and political tensions. For this reason, the government closely monitors even small signs of stress in the supply system.
The most realistic scenario, if the international situation remains tense for weeks or months, is not so much that of empty gas stations as that of a gradual increase in prices. This pressure could be reflected in inflation, public transport, and the cost of basic products.
Kenya now has more robust tools than in the past to manage any shocks in the oil market. However, it remains a country that imports almost all the energy it consumes.
This means that even when fuel continues to arrive regularly in Mombasa, the price at which it arrives can change much faster than the habits of those who use that fuel every day.