There are moments in Africa when the border is not a line on a map, but a premonition. A premonition that smells of roadblocks, silent phones, and hours passing as slowly as a bus stuck in the sun. It is one of those moments when Kenya looks toward Uganda and, prudently, slows down.
Kenyans intending to cross the Busia and Malaba border posts have been asked to temporarily suspend their travel plans. Not on a whim, but out of simple political survival instinct. Uganda is awaiting the official results of the general election on Thursday, January 15, 2026, and, as is often the case in this part of the world, the wait is the most delicate phase.
The alert was raised by Busia County Commissioner Stephen Orinda, who on Friday, January 16, warned citizens of the risks associated with the situation across the border. Unnecessary travel should be avoided, and caution should be exercised as an ancient virtue until the Ugandan political situation has settled down.
Orinda did not speak from hearsay. He reminded journalists of what recently happened to Kenyans in Tanzania during that country's elections. The memory is still fresh, made up of names, dates, and bodies that did not return home. “We have lost the lives of some Kenyans over there,” he warned, without needing to add anything else.
Meanwhile, those from Uganda trying to return to Kenya describe scenes that resemble a dress rehearsal for chaos rather than a normal post-election day. Communication networks down, checkpoints everywhere, endless waits. A traveler from Kampala spoke of a confusing situation, with voters moving from house to house and phones reduced to decorative objects. Another said he spent twelve hours at the border for a journey that normally takes three, stuck from evening until dawn, when exhaustion overcomes even resignation.
Busia's warning reopens wounds that are still raw. The 2025 elections in Tanzania remain a regional scar: at least two Kenyans killed during post-election violence, others injured, arbitrary arrests, and families left in limbo. John Ogutu, a 33-year-old teacher, was killed by police in Dar es Salaam and never returned to his family. Albert Kamala, arrested on election day and later found dead. These incidents turn every border crossing into a tragic lottery.
According to human rights groups, post-election repression in Tanzania has claimed between 700 and 3,000 victims, figures that are much higher than the official numbers. These are numbers that are not easily forgotten, especially when it comes to new elections in countries where democracy is often an exercise in resistance rather than choice.
Uganda, after all, comes to this vote with a recent past fraught with tension. The latest election campaigns have been accompanied by mass arrests of opposition supporters, prolonged detentions, and political charges. Historic leaders such as Kizza Besigye and popular figures such as Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, have seen more prison cells than rallies, with Besigye remaining in custody for over a year since the end of 2024.
Provisional results released by the Ugandan Electoral Commission show President Yoweri Museveni in the lead with 75.38% of the vote, followed by Bobi Wine with 20.71%. In other contexts, these figures would seal the deal. Here, however, they mark the beginning of the most delicate phase: the one in which not only the ballots are counted, but also the reactions.
On January 9, the United Nations had already warned against the use of violence against protesters, recalling how repression and impunity have become structural elements of Ugandan political life since the 2021 vote, along with restrictions on freedom of speech and protest.
“We are on high alert,” Orinda reiterated, assuring that Kenyan security forces continue to patrol all border points. A border that today separates not only two countries, but two states of mind: on the one hand, the tense anticipation of Uganda, on the other, the caution of those who have already learned that when politics heat up, it is always the ordinary citizen who gets burned first.
The results should be in today, but by arresting the opposition leaders, they will be prevented from taking to the streets to protest what they believe to be rigged results. For now, however, it is better to stay at home. Uganda is not going anywhere. Elections come and go. But when borders are charged with fear, they can remain closed longer than the polls.