The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) revealed in recent days that the Kenyan shilling is expected to remain stable against the dollar over the next two months, while economic experts have expressed concerns that it may remain the ‘global currency’ for trade after falling to a three-year low against the euro, raising new concerns about President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies.
This is therefore a positive moment for those arriving from Europe who are no longer inclined to exchange euros for dollars in order to travel with more ‘heavy’ currency in African countries. In fact, the Kenyan currency has lost ground against the Japanese yen and the euro.
This is particularly true of the shilling, which since the beginning of the year has always kept the US currency at around 130 shillings to the dollar, while the euro, which had also reached 133, is now back to 142 and could remain there if the US tariff policy (which, moreover, has only grazed Kenya) does not have the effects hoped for by the Trump administration, showing indifference among investors.
As for Kenya, low international fuel prices and inflows from remittances from Kenyans abroad and agricultural exports should support the shilling, despite the fact that remittances fell in March compared to the beginning of the year and uncertainty over Trump's economic policy could lead to a reduction in exports to the United States.
Investors surveyed by the CBK nevertheless expressed optimism that the shilling would remain strong against the US currency, believing that this was due to the national treasury's adequate monetary reserves, which act as a buffer against any short-term shocks in the foreign exchange market.