The rise in tension in the Middle East and the attacks between Israel and Iran, in addition to threatening the entire West and reawakening fears of a nuclear escalation, will also have immediate repercussions on Kenya and East Africa in general.
At the geopolitical level, Kenya's strategic position in East Africa places it at the crossroads of conflicting interests, making it essential to maintain balanced relations with both sides. Although Israel is a key ally, particularly in terms of security, Kenya cannot underestimate the Islamic presence (not only because of the 11% of the population who are Muslim, but also because of the economic interests they represent) and the threat of terrorism, including in the form of repercussions and diplomatic implications that include relations with troubled neighbor Somalia and the Middle East.

At the beginning of the conflict with Hamas, due to the massacres of civilians in Gaza, many Kenyans, and not only Muslims, sympathized with Palestine, marching and mobilizing on social media in favor of a ceasefire and Palestinian independence.As long as it was exclusively about the Gaza Strip, despite the risks, which, incidentally, are not absent for any country in the world that has distanced itself from Hamas, the Ruto government has repeatedly confirmed its full support for Israel.

With Iran, of course, the situation is different. We are not talking about a small entity unfortunately polluted by extremist fringes demanding acceptance as an independent entity, but a large, powerful state with an ancient history and culture, currently in the hands of a very undemocratic oligarchy. Kenya's economy is heavily dependent on trade, relations with more developed countries, and tourism, hence the decision to tactically avoid taking sides, as this could significantly affect these aspects.Kenya is Iran's second largest trading partner on the continent after South Africa. Relations between the two countries go back more than half a century and, contrary to what one might think, were strengthened by the Islamic revolution of 1979.In 2023, Kenya's exports to Iran amounted to $48 million, including coffee, tea, meat, and manufactured goods.As for imports, Iran is a supplier of oil, although not as much as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but a recent agreement has increased imports to 4 million tons per year of inorganic/organic chemicals, fertilizers, plastic and glass products, as well as precious and semi-precious stones.

There are also bilateral agreements in the fields of transport and education. The first noticeable problem that this war will create at the economic level will therefore be the increase in oil prices, the first signs of which are already being felt. For Kenya, in addition to being affected by the 6% global increase (more than $4 per barrel), this also means an increase in transport prices across the Persian Gulf. Already plagued by Houthi attacks on merchant ships, the Red Sea has become an unstable corridor, forcing freight carriers to divert to the Cape of Good Hope.

This leads to higher prices, longer delays, and increasing pressure on the economy, with the risk of undermining the already weak recovery. In fact, starting this week, super gasoline at the pump in Kenya will cost 2.70 shillings more per liter and could rise again in July. According to experts, we could see a 5-7% increase in fuel prices within two weeks. With gasoline more expensive, transport, shipping, and airfares are expected to rise.Kenya made its voice heard for the first time yesterday on the war between Tel Aviv and Teheran.

In a statement, Deputy Foreign Minister Korir Sing'oei called for the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two nations and a halt to cross-attacks, while also asking the United Nations for a strong presence and an immediate response for peace.We are following with deep concern the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, which risks spiraling out of control with serious consequences for regional and global peace and security," Sing'oei said.