Poverty in Kenya has reached historic levels in its drama this year, with 35% of citizens falling outside the parameters of decent survival for one reason or another. But the World Bank is optimistic about the future, starting in 2023.
According to international economic experts, next year Kenya's poverty rate will begin a downward spiral that could last five years. This will be due to the improvement of the climate compared to the last seasons of drought and the growth of exports,
GDP will return above 5 percent to continue to grow and growth in per capita incomes will help the country recover from the damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The World Bank predicts that as early as the end of this year, Kenya's poverty will fall to 33.4 percent and by 2024 it could hit 31.6 percent.
"The country's economy has been severely disrupted by the Covid-19 shock, but it has already put a strong recovery in the pipeline, and the poverty rate is expected to fall below its pre-pandemic level in 2022," the latest development outlook report reveals. "Baseline projections assume that rainfall returned to average will support good agricultural crops to drive food processing, resume export growth, help anchor inflation expectations, and support household consumption.
Indeed, since operations resumed in full reopening after various restrictions, the economy has grown 6.7 percent, supported by a strong recovery in the services sector, and growth in manufacturing and construction. Agricultural production, however, contracted by 1.5 percent in 2021, due to below-average rainfall.