‘Happy New Year from Africa, where hope is not only the last to die, but also believes in reincarnation’. With this greeting, I concluded 12 months ago my predictions article for 2024 in Kenya.
I consider myself anything but a seer, but something in 35 years of being in this country I have understood.
Talking about the economic and social situation in the country at the beginning of last year, I wrote: ‘this whole economic picture could give us hope, if it were not for the fact that the internal situation remains critical and the government finds no other solution than to increase taxes, inevitably affecting not only its own citizens, but also the residents and investors who decide to settle in the country’.
How things have turned out, those who have followed the events of the year we are leaving behind know well.
Increased taxes, youth protests, repression, increases in work and residence permits, deterioration of some services. On the other hand, intelligent foreign policy and new openings that bode well, especially for the European Union and consequently also for Italy, also in view of the Mattei Plan.
This year, the unknown factor for Kenya is instead represented by Cyclone Trump and the relations, his and consequently also Nairobi's, if it wants to please him, with China.
If, on the one hand, Donald and Elon's intervention in the Russia-Ukraine conflict were really as decisive as they promised in the election campaign, Kenya could unblock other trade routes that had become bogged down, starting with the crucial import of wheat and flour.
On the other hand, however, Trump has already hinted that he wants to rework overly ‘democratic’ agreements with Africa and may not be so soft on corruption and the lack of transparency in accounts and money flows between Nairobi and Washington.
Beijing is at the window with its portfolio of claims on Kenya, ready to pounce the moment the Ruto government no longer turns to the Dragon for new infrastructure and other projects.
Kenya's future lies in the participation of private companies in Kenya's public services, which are marking time and need to be modernised, implemented and brought to a higher and competitive level. Recently, for instance, Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja envisaged the creation of the underground metro in a metropolis where the problems of rainwater runoff have still not been solved, where electricity cables are unleashed on pavements and dangle everywhere, where roads have more potholes and chasms than asphalt, and so on. There is a need for a bath of humility and to start from the basic needs of the country, without being ashamed or calling PPP ‘neo-colonialism’. It is right, for example, to abandon the agreement with the controversial Indian giant Adani Group for the 30-year management of Nairobi International Airport, but only because the company is not credible, after the corruption trial brought against it in the United States and a not-so-clear name in other countries.
Instead, other realities are welcome to come alongside to improve Kenya, paying the right rent and creating the possibilities for an all-Kenyan industry: one example above all, the Malindi airport. If it were to become public-private, it could activate a series of parallel infrastructures, adjoining hospitality zones and attract investors whose priorities are to have a business-friendly airport.
This can be done with liberalisation: of electricity for instance, but also of water, in a smart, competent and sustainable manner.
Let's see if the will is there and the possibilities arrive this year, before the country sinks back into popular discontent. Fortunately, despite certain services, the beauty of this corner of the world continues to attract tourists and a record year is in store for that.
Happy 2025, then. Perhaps without too much hope, but hopefully with a little more concreteness than in past years.