Imagine that the heart of East Africa, meaning Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania (but let's also include the small but exemplary Rwanda), became a single nation.
Enormous in size, and above all with almost entirely usable land (less than 10% desert and unusable mountains), fifteenth in the world in terms of square meters (approximately 1,800,000) and even eighth in terms of population, with almost 200 million souls, 80% of whom are under 35, and therefore pure “labor force.”
A potential powerhouse.
Although the opening words may seem (and be) “political fantasy,” never before have the four countries of East Africa, with their governments, been so aligned.
Their democracies are faltering, their presidents are increasingly authoritarian, freedom of expression and opposition are being suppressed, all in the name of economic development that primarily benefits the ruling oligarchies.
While Uganda and Rwanda are already well ahead in the process of sovereignty that is so fashionable today, Kenya and Tanzania are experimenting with enlightened authoritarianism.
In Rwanda, Paul Kagame is in his fourth term, after winning the elections with a suspiciously high 99% of the vote and, with the help of Parliament, abolishing term limits.

In Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, solely for having ousted the bloody dictator Idi Amin Dada, has been sitting in the presidential chair since 1986, with the idea of then handing over the reins to his son Muhoozi, the current head of the army, who does not seem quite right in the head. Compared to his invectives on X, those of Elon Musk and JD Vance are heartfelt. In one of his inflammatory tweets, he wished he had opposition leaders in his hands to torture them, while in others he announced his intention to invade neighboring countries, the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan, to free them from rebels “in his own way.”
On the other hand, it was unthinkable that Trump, Putin, Kim, and other sovereignist leaders would not set an example in sub-Saharan Africa. The principle of imitation of the Western world by English-speaking Africa has always been an obvious postcolonial emotional transport. It is easy to think that if it works with voters in Western countries that are more advanced in terms of the “res publica,” imagine how it would work in young African democracies.
This is particularly true for the governments of the so-called Horn of Africa, which are facing the raids of the young and very young Generation Z, who are technologically and socially savvy like few others in the world and eager to express all the potential that could finally elevate them to the level of their Western peers, if not surpass them in terms of their desire to emerge, their lack of boredom, and their rejection of a life of handouts.

This 'African Spring' force is not easy to keep at bay for the presidents of Kenya and Tanzania, the two driving forces of the region, given their growth potential, which is in the spotlight of the world's major powers, as well as of the European Union. The sovereignist spirit is what unites them at this time, and some recent events demonstrate this and could lead to unexpected alliances.
As is well known, in Kenya, President William Ruto, after forming an alliance with former opposition leader Raila Odinga, appointed members of the electoral commission from among his acolytes, as claimed by human rights associations. In Uganda and Tanzania, on the other hand, the two main opponents of the government are both under arrest and accused of high treason, a charge that carries the death penalty. In Tanzania, which will go to the polls next October, the president is a woman, Samia Suluhu Hassan, who ousted the opposition Chadema party from the elections because it did not accept her proposed electoral reforms.

The trial of the leader, Tundu Lissu, began in recent days and Kenyan observers, including former Justice Minister Martha Karua, one of her country's new opposition leaders, were arrested and subsequently expelled. The Nairobi government called the decision “non-political” and within Tanzania's rights. Subsequently, activist Boniface Mwangi, one of the leaders of last year's anti-government protests in Nairobi, was arrested in Tanzania for the same reason and has not been heard from for days. Historically, Kenya and Tanzania have never been friendly nations. There is a non-aggression pact and economic ties, but also clear political differences. It is a bit like the “cousinhood” between Italy and France, with Rome clearly on Nairobi's side and Tanzanian snobbery in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower. Yet in this case, the Kenyan government has endorsed the arrests and expulsions of its political compatriots and activists, agreeing with the Tanzanian president who asked the Kenyans “not to interfere” in their affairs. However, Mwangi's disappearance caused turmoil among Kenyan organizations, which threatened to “invade” Tanzania and get arrested en masse, and set up a protest camp outside the Tanzanian High Commission in Nairobi. In the end, the Kenyan government requested his release and Mwangi was found in Ukunda, near Diani beach, after being abandoned by a car.
Meanwhile, the Tanzanian government has imposed restrictions on Platform X, the most widely used platform by activists and dissidents, justifying the action with an alleged hacker attack on institutional profiles...

These are issues that mean reducing the opposition to a minimum and silencing it ahead of the upcoming elections in October this year.
The Ugandan opposition leader has suffered the same fate as his Tanzanian counterpart, with President Museveni being accused by many of failing to protect human rights.
Uganda's long-time opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, has been in prison since last November after being deported from Kenya on charges of complicity by politicians and non-governmental organizations. Without batting an eyelid, Kenyan Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi admitted after months that Kenya had helped Ugandan security forces kidnap Besigye on Kenyan soil because his presence in the country 'was unclear'.
Besigye, a former personal physician and ally of President Museveni, is on trial for high treason at the country's Court Martial and, as mentioned, like his Tanzanian colleague Tundu Lissu, if convicted, he faces the death penalty.
Finally, as an interesting editorial in Al Jazeera pointed out, the sovereignist and unitarian drift of these countries seems to be receiving support (and subsidies) from certain American and European organizations seeking to maintain values that are rigid and deeply rooted in the ultra-Catholic beliefs of Africans, because they are in line with their homophobic attitudes and rooted in the idea of family and values, and probably to keep at bay the youthful ferment and 'woke' culture in a continent so young that it frightens them.
Will these external pressures and unity among authoritarian governments succeed in calming the streets and satisfying the people without causing internal upheaval? And above all, what will become of individual freedom in these African countries?